SINGAPORE--The information revolution, as initiated by Moore's Law means countries that do not move to a knowledge-based economy will be left behind, according to a theoretical physicist.
Michio Kaku, a futurist and professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York, said Moore's Law has enabled the wave of technology which society enjoys today. Moore's Law states that the number of transistors on a chip will double every two years, exponentially growing compute power and shrinking the size of devices.
However, this trend signals the end of "commodity capitalism" as computers and robots are increasingly equipped to take over mechanical and repetitive jobs, said Kaku, who was in town Tuesday as a keynote speaker at a forum organized by Singapore's A*STAR (Agency for Science, Technology and Research).
Countries that want to remain relevant in the future must then move to become knowledge-based economies, he said.
Kaku's scenario bodes well for Singapore, since the country does not have natural resources or a large mechanical labor force. Its focus on technology could place the island-state at the cutting edge of "intellectual capitalism", the physicist said.
"The winners of the information revolution will be people whose jobs need common sense," he said, referring analysts, investors and leaders as examples. Manual vocations such as garbage collectors are also "safe", Kaku said, because computers cannot differentiate between what is garbage and what is not. "Policemen are safe too, because every crime is different," he said.
The "losers" are therefore those that can be replaced by a mechanical process, namely, middlemen, brokers, tellers and low-level sales agents, he said. Workers with repetitive jobs, of which a great number are middle-class jobs, have to think of ways to add value in order to survive, he warned.
"The future belongs to common sense," said Kaku.
Future of Moore's Law
According to the professor, if Moore's Law holds up, chips in the year 2020 will cost a penny a piece. This has great implications on the way society uses technology.
Kaku drew several examples of how technology can applied to sustain life, for example, by growing new body parts to eliminate tissue rejection or in suspended animation, where a person's life can be "paused" after suffering massive blood loss. Technology can also be used to grow "super rice" that can weather harsh conditions and feed more of the world's population.
Technology for productivity will also look different, he said, where the Internet, for instance, can be accessed through jewelry, glasses or contact lenses. To take the concept of "cloud computing" further, data files could follow a user from room to room as they move through terminals, he added.
Kaku said: "All of this sounds like science fiction, but it is based on what we can already do."
The future, enabled by constant Internet access, will also push society closer to a state of "perfect competition" in the marketplace, he said. Perfect competition, he explained, is an economics principle that states no single party has the power to influence the price of a good it sells. With constant connectivity through myriad devices, consumers will be able to check the prices of any product, helping to flatten the power of sellers in the marketplace.
According to Kaku, Moore's Law is likely to end in the year 2020. When that happens, he said, chip-manufacturing countries "like Taiwan will suffer".
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We have "missed" a unique chance to Sustain Humanity in this century by not changing our basic Economic Structures and allowing the present Financial Market System to prevail When one considers what the future holds, a world population of between 9.5
We have "missed" a unique chance to Sustain Humanity in this century by not changing our basic Economic Structures and allowing the present Financial Market System to prevail When one considers what the future holds, a world population of between 9.5 and 10.5 billion by 2050 (possibly even up to 12 billion), ever-dwindling natural resources to support human life and the dire effects of climate change through carbon and pollution emission, is it not clear that we have to change our economics to "Ethical" and "Sustainable" economics? For if we carry on with the present capitalist economic system, where the very few become rich beyond their wildest dreams and the majority are kept in relative poverty through the crumbs that drop from the rich man's table, our young and future generations to come will eventually suffer immeasurably suffering. Indeed, governments are still presently blinded by current economic dogma and minority vested interests that do not look after the well-being of all people. Therefore we have to change to new economic systems that are sustainable and where the needs of the vast majority of the people are addressed. In this respect it is a little know fact but it only takes a reduction of no more than a 15% drop in global oil supply to bring eventually the whole of the global economy to its knees. We have therefore to supplant the present capitalist systems and economics with "sustainable" systems and "need" economics before it is far too late to change. That does not mean that we do away with 'markets', as 'markets' are the only way in which trade occurs. It is how we operate those markets is the problem for sustainability and public need. But unfortunately to allow this to happen, governments should have started the critical need to change to these "ethical" economic structures at the start of the credit crunch and should not have supported the banking system as they have. In this respect we would have had a decade of comparative hardship but where we would have eventually attained a new way forward for humankind based upon sustainability and necessary human need economics. Now, having rescued the banks and other large corporate entities we are still on the same road to our ultimate destruction as a species. For nothing has and will really change, as the same system will in principal be with us, "capitalism" in another disguise. Unfortunately governments are in the main dictated too by big business and where whose only aim is profit, no matter how they achieve it. Considering this the world will continue in decline in human development terms and where at the end of this road awaits a nightmarish vision for humankind. Therefore wouldn't it have been better to change now, go through 10-years of pain whilst we forge new equitable economic systems and then have a lasting environment for all generations to come. But no, governments and big business will not allow this to happen and accept the inevitable dire problems that they will cause through still adopting the basic premise of the capitalist system--profits, greed and self-interest to the detriment of all humankind. That is why governments now spend around £1 trillion on armaments and defence alone every year as they know that the capitalist system will eventually lead to global wars and aggression, as nations eventually fight for ever depleting natural resources under the dictates of the "capitalist" market forces and economic principals - the law of the fittest and strongest and who will win through. But this time there will be NO winners it has to be said. We have now therefore lost a major chance in providing humankind with the means to a sustainable future in this century and where our political leaders should reassess their economic strategy, for what they do now will affect the very survival of the human experience itself. Dr David Hill World Innovation Foundation Charity (WIFC) Bern, Switzerland UK Postal Address: PO Box A60, Huddersfield, HD1 1XJ UK Contact No: 044 (0) 1484 537181
Posted by dr david hill on Thursday, October 23 2008 02:01 AM