Voice to dominate 3G traffic, says expert

By Aaron Tan, ZDNet Asia
Wednesday, May 25, 2005 11:29 AM
SINGAPORE--Voice, not video calls, will dominate third-generation (3G) traffic in the future, according to an industry expert. Singapore's telecommunications players agree.

"More than half of 3G traffic will be voice, no matter how much we talk about video calls, video streaming and mobile games," said Tomi Ahonen, who describes himself as a 3G strategy consultant. Author of several books on next-generation mobile networks and an Oxford University lecturer on 3G marketing, business and technology, Ahonen was speaking at a seminar here Tuesday. The event was organized by the Singapore Infocomm Technology Federation, and provided some 300 participants a glimpse of future 3G developments.

The cellular phone network promises to provide download speeds of up to 384kbps, and support video calls, video streaming and even mobile TV on 3G handsets. But even Singapore's telecommunications providers, despite 3G's market potential, agreed with Ahonen's assessment.

"Voice is still the platform on which our business is run," said Paul Kitchin, SingTel's vice-president for consumer marketing, during a panel discussion. "There's still the basic voice communication that people will use."

He added that the mobile industry then builds on top of this, providing text and multimedia messaging services.

Neil Montefiore, chief executive officer of MobileOne, noted that human needs are the same today as they were thousands of years ago. People still need to communicate and get information through speaking, as well as feeling and touching, he said.

"What really changes is how we fulfill those needs with 3G," Montefiore said.

But for 3G to take off, Singapore's telecommunications operators reiterated the need for smaller handsets, longer battery life (on the mobile phone) and more importantly, an entire ecosystem of content providers, network operators and handset makers.

"In Japan, (this ecosystem of industry players) work well together to ensure that customers have a good experience," said Chan Kin Hung, head of mobile services from StarHub.

"Today, when you use a GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) WAP (Wireless Access Protocol) phone, some sites are displayed very well (on the phone), but you can't click on a phone number on a restaurant site to make a phone call," he said.

In Japan, he said, cellphone users in a similar scenario can simply click on the phone number listed on the site to make a reservation. "It's as simple as that. I can imagine my grandmother using it, but I cannot imagine her using a WAP phone to do the same thing," he added.

Responding to consumer concerns that the cost of 3G services is still high compared to GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) cellular networks, SingTel's Kitchin said his company's recent launch of 3G services eliminates this pricing barrier.

The carrier, the largest of Singapore's three telecommunications service providers, prices its video calls at S$0.105 (US$0.063) per minute--about the cost of a voice call in the island-state. Its pay-per-use 3G data access rate, at S$0.0035 (US$0.0021) per kilobyte, is also 30 percent lower than GPRS charges.

"Customers do not have worry about price being an issue whether they make voice or video calls. 3G being expensive is just a perceptual barrier," Kitchin said.


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Talkback 2 comments

Would it not be fabulous to be able to see the phone display as well as hear it speaking to you? Magnifics inc in California hold the patents that cover magnification in Phones, Cell phones, Pagers, PDA's. Palms and GPS's.
You can see there products at www.thephonemonocle.com. A large corporation should pick them up and create a phone that covers all the bases.
Hum.... A display that everyone could actually see, Great Idea.
Posted by Joanie Taylor on Friday, May 27 2005 11:29 PM

It's easy to say that the status quo will remain, as that is the nature of industries where the "killer application" has yet to be discovered.

The mobile phone (3G, 4G, even 2G) is just a communications platform. Who is to say that in 5-10 years time people won't find a more effective way to communicate on that platform? SMS usage rates in China, for example, point to a strong uptake of non-voice usage on the mobile platform.

Everyone is still searching for the 3G killer app, but that doesn't mean it can't/doesn't exist. Broadband didn't have a killer application when it first came out, either - but look at programs like P2P sharing, music downloading, etc. and how much they have expanded to use up bandwidth once it was made available.

3G is an enabling technology. We have yet to see what it will truly enable, pundits notwithstanding.
Posted by Shubber Ali on Saturday, May 28 2005 05:24 AM


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