Is Asia mobile TV's biggest market?

By Isabelle Chan, ZDNet Asia
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 10:23 AM
Television on the mobile phone, or mobile TV, is getting everyone in the broadcasting and mobile telecommunications industries deliriously excited.

And why not? Television viewing is one of the most popular pastimes. Combine this with the fact that one in six people around the globe own a mobile phone, the potential for mobile TV is huge.

Industry analysts predict the Asia-Pacific region, with its huge mobile phone subscriber base, has the potential to be the biggest market for mobile TV.

In a report published in January this year, U.K.-based Portio Research predicted that the Asia-Pacific region will break the magic 1 billion-subscriber mark in 2006, and double the number to 2 billion mobile phone users by 2011.

"A substantial part of the forecast subscriber growth from start-2006 to end-2011 will be witnessed in the Asia-Pacific region, with vast growth opportunities in China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines," said John White, business development director for Portio Research.

By 2011, the Asia-Pacific region will account for about 50 percent of the world's mobile subscriber base, with a staggering 1.1 billion subscribers from China and India--the world's two biggest mobile markets, White noted.

As for market opportunities in mobile TV, Informa Telecoms & Media has projected that the Asia-Pacific market will lead in the number of mobile TV users between 2007 and 2010.

According to Dave McQueen, principal analyst for handsets at Informa Telecoms & Media, there will be 68.4 million mobile broadcast TV users by 2010 in the Asia-Pacific, or nearly 55 percent of the world's total.

Reality TV
So what will it take for these forecasts to become reality?

Everyone--from the broadcasters to the mobile phone operators--is hoping World Cup 2006 will drive consumer interest in mobile TV, by offering World Cup news, results, matches and schedules via the mobile phone.

But will the World Cup draw enough of the mobile crowd? Analysts may put the potential mobile TV revenues at US$300 million over the course of the football tournament, but mobile TV still faces several challenges.

First, most of today's TV programs are streamed over cellular networks--not the most cost-effective approach for the service provider as this process eats up voice bandwidth.

Several camps have emerged across the globe over the past months, each with its own supporters of competing technologies.

So far, the jury is still out on which broadcast network technology standard, including DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcasting), DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld) and Qualcomm's MediaFlo, will be the most widely adopted platform for delivering mobile TV.

"There are different methods of delivering mobile TV to consumers and different models, such as 3G, satellite, terrestrial and combinations of these technologies," said Vince Pizzica, chief technology officer for Alcatel Asia-Pacific. "At this point, the market is sizeable enough to accommodate these various standards, but standard harmonization will be critical in the future to ensure scalability and cost-effectiveness."

Alcatel is developing products for service providers around the world, using 3G for cellular networks as well as the DVB-H standard.


Motorola, having committed to making mobile TV a popular service, is also backing DVB-H. "We are following a very clear path, especially [toward] DVB-H," said Nick Pilbeam, managing director of Professional Services for Motorola Networks Asia-Pacific.

He added, however, that Motorola is keeping an open mind. "That does not preclude that we're not looking at other standards for mobile TV," Pilbeam noted.

Regulatory issues also pose major hurdles. Since mobile TV is not necessarily viewed as being strictly a broadcast media, McQueen noted that one of the biggest hurdles market players must overcome is how this market will be governed by regulators.

He added that other challenges relate to how TV content should be billed, and specifically, how public-service broadcasters will be allowed to generate income through commercial activities and how free-to-air programming should be handled.

Other thorny issues include the allocation of spectrum frequency and digital rights management (DRM).

Frequency use for mobile TV is not harmonized on a global basis. "There is no single frequency available for use worldwide," Pizzica pointed out.

And intellectual property must be carefully handled, through DRM, for the success of content services is based on a sound business model that looks at premium or copyright content, McQueen noted.

Alcatel's Pizzica agreed. "This is critical because of the demand from users to record programs or view 'live' programs in time-shifted mode," he said.

Infrastructure and regulatory challenges aside, there are also issues related to content and consumer demand.

How should service or content providers repurpose TV programs for the mobile screen? Is there enough battery life, and is the screen on the mobile device big enough to offer a reasonably good viewing experience? How much are users willing to pay for such services? What are some key consumer consumption patterns?

When is the price right?
Under the covers of today's mobile TV screenings of, say, the World Cup, operators face the question of service pricing. So far, two models have emerged.

In the advertising pricing model, service providers provide mobile TV for free and make their profits from advertising revenues. In a fee-based pricing, national operators have estimated that mobile TV services could generate an additional 10 euros (US$12) to 20 euros (US$25) in monthly fees per user, Pizzica said.

In Korea, he added, fee-based pricing is currently adopted as the model of choice as "it is one that has been stipulated by the national regulator there".

As for content management and licensing, there are various revenue-sharing schemes in place. "But some content providers have insisted on a fixed-fee model, given that the market is in its early stages and penetration is still relatively low," Pizzica said.

Singapore mobile phone operator Star Hub, offers entertainment and news clips to its 2.5G and 3G subscribers. Its most popular mobile content is EPL football updates, and the operator is confident there is a demand for mobile TV.

"It's just a matter of understanding which technology, or technologies are the best means to provide the service," said Mike Reynolds, head of commercial, StarHub.

He did not highlight any specific technology standard, but did say that StarHub is "closely studying the available technologies". Reynolds also acknowledged the additional challenge of competing in small and diverse markets, such as Singapore.

"Singapore lacks economies of scale that are found in larger and less diverse markets," he said. Reynolds explained that mobile phone subscribers in the island-state also enjoy content that is offered in multiple languages, and this adds "a great deal of complexity to the development process".

Pizzica, however, remains optimistic that the mobile TV market will see success in the Asia-Pacific region, despite the uncertainty surrounding technology standards. He said: "Costs for handsets and services are rapidly coming into the range of affordability for a large segment of the population.

"3G service and handsets are already available and being deployed in countries as diverse as Japan and Cambodia," he added. "In Korea, service providers have already begun to provide satellite-based service."


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