India and Japan will, by 2012, be the largest WiMax markets in the Asia-Pacific region where its industry is expected to be worth US$5.5 billion by that year, according to Springboard's latest report.
The IT research company estimated the Asia-Pacific region's services revenues from the 3G technology will grow almost a hundredfold from US$58 million last year to reach US$5.5 billion in 2012.
Springboard also predicted India and Japan will be WiMax's dominant markets, with an estimated 35.7 percent and 16.9 percent share of the region. The two countries are followed by Pakistan and China.
As for subscriber numbers, Springboard expects 15.8 million in India by 2012, which is 46.7 percent of the predicted total number of 33.9 million in the region.
In a statement, Springboard said it took into account each country's WiMax licensing status and investment plans in the technology as outlined by vendors.
Springboard explained: "Telecom operators are fast overcoming their concerns about accommodating WiMax within their existing frequency allocation framework."
Bryan Wang, research director, connectivity research at Springboard said: "With the maturity of WiMax technology, and more operators and regulators around the world supporting [it], we have seen most regulators in this region now announcing their plans to clear unused spectrum, or collect the spectrum used by the satellite or broadcasting industries, and re-allocate these spectrums specifically for the use of broadband wireless access (BWA)."
Likewise, India's top spot in the report is attributed to "support from the government, ambitious investment plans by players like BSNL and Tata Communications, and the replacement of poor legacy fixed-line broadband infrastructure".
Wang said: "We see tremendous potential for WiMax deployment in many emerging markets in the region, which have struggled to extend fixed-line broadband infrastructure beyond a few big cities and into the rural and poorer areas."
Additionally, mobile WiMax is expected to garner a "significant majority of revenues and subscribers" compared to that of fixed WiMax.
Mobile WiMax is expected to "monopolize the market" in Japan, with the country's UQ Communications slated to be its largest WiMax operator. The total market is predicted to grow to US$924.5 million in 2012, said Springboard.
"The next couple of years will be critical for WiMax growth in [the region], and during that time, we are expecting services to be available for end users in over 10 countries," said Wang.
The mobile broadband industry has been split over the debate between mobile WiMax and its competing technology, LTE (long term evolution), which rides on cellular networks.
In general, however, it has been understood that most of the world's markets will go with LTE, with WiMax limited to emerging markets where infrastructure and spectrum is limited.
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India and Japan to dominate WiMAX markets
These figures are dependent on smooth allocation of frequencies, particularly in India. The recent proclamations and implications therefrom suggest that the prime mobile wimax frequencies of 2.3 Ghz and 2.5-2.69 GHz may be opened for auction even to mobile operators. This means LTE rather than WiMAX. The fact is that it is too early for LTE and mobile wimax has matured and proved itself in commercial networks since 2005.
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Posted by Amitabh Kumar on Wednesday, July 30 2008 01:05 PM