GPS-enabled phones may be threatening to edge out standalone navigation devices, but some device manufacturers are betting that phones will not be able to close the computing gap anytime soon.
Recent reports suggest the boom in supply of GPS-enabled mobile phones may signal the imminent death of personal navigation devices (PNDs), as phones close in on that market.
However, Bill Lu, general manager of OEM division at Singapore-based PND maker, Shinco, does not see map-ready phones as a threat to its business. True 3D" capability stands between PNDs and mobile phones, Lu said in an e-mail interview with ZDNet Asia, adding that he does not expect the latter to be able to catch up and offer an experience as satisfactory as standalone PNDs.
Mapping software with "true 3D" features serve up maps with detailed information such as terrain elevation and landmarks portrayed in 3D digital renderings. Such information, he noted, is not found on "flat" 2D maps.
Lu said smartphones may be getting more sophisticated but are not expected to "catch up hardware-wise" with PNDs on features, stability and price point anytime soon.
He added that GPS-enabled smartphones may instead prove a boon for the PND market, by introducing GPS applications to new users.
Amit Prasad, founder and CEO of SatNav Technologies India, noted that the experience of using a dedicated device cannot be replaced by a phone application.
He said in an e-mail: "We firmly believe that in the end, it won't be a processing power game. Rather, the bottomline is whether the customer will be happy using his phone for serious navigation."
Prasad explained that mobile phones have no issues supporting localized search and "some nearby location pointing", but when used as an actual navigation device on a drive or to locate a place, phones simply cannot match up.
SatNav's market research has shown that the PND space will mimic the digital camera market, which continues to see growth despite the presence of cameras in mobile phones, he noted. "[Likewise], the PND market will have its own space even if phones start doing navigation in a limited way," he said.
According to a September study released by iSuppli, PNDs may cease to exist by 2014.
Asked about the likelihood of phones edging out PNDs, Prasad said the future of this space beyond the next five years is "too long a time to try and predict", as well as dismiss.
"We know there is an opportunity today and there is a market waiting to be tapped, which [equates to] several million units in size, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars in market size, at least for now," he said.
Stephanie Ethier, mobile Internet senior analyst at In-Stat, told ZDNet Asia in an e-mail that PND shipments are expected to continue growing over the next five years, "despite the very real threat that GPS-enabled mobile phones now represent".
The PND market is bolstered by factors such as a declining price point, and automobile manufacturers installing more of such devices in their cars, she said.
But, Ethier said the PND makers should not alienate themselves from the mobile handset market.
The weak economy will likely show consumers continuing to hold off on buying separate navigation devices, she said, noting: "In order to generate continued revenue streams, PND manufacturers should continue to explore ways to participate in the GPS-enabled mobile handset market."
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