Web 2.0 technologies may make you roll your eyes dismissively right now but the likes of software-as-a-service, mashups and online services will have a change-inducing impact on business within the next two years, despite currently languishing in what analyst Gartner terms a "trough of disillusionment".
The analyst's annual hype cycle predicts the fortunes of emerging technologies as they progress from early-day enthusiasm, through user disillusionment as they fail to live up to immediate hype and finally on to real-world understanding as expectation and achievement aligns.
Web 2.0 technologies are due to move into the final phase within two years, "as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications", Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner fellow, said in a statement.
Also on the two-year horizon--though likely to have a much more modest impact in the business world--are basic Web services and corporate blogging.
Other transformational technologies not far behind Web 2.0 on the hype cycle are cloud computing, virtual worlds and service-oriented architecture (SOA)--which the analyst reckons are all within two to five years of mainstream adoption.
Fenn said cloud computing and SOA will deliver business transformation by "driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT", while virtual worlds--such as Second Life--are currently suffering from being over-hyped, but in the long term, will "represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest".
Enterprise interest in cloud computing is being driven by organizations seeking to consume IT services in the most cost-effective way, the analyst said, though it warned confusion and hype will continue "for at least another year" before distinct submarkets and market leaders emerge.
Other technologies within two to five years of mainstream adoption include green IT and location-aware applications, both of which Gartner believes will have a high business benefit. The analyst also identifies electronic paper, service-oriented business apps and solid-state drives as emerging techs with high potential in this timeframe.
RFID, while still considered to be a transformational technology by the analyst, has a much longer road to travel, with five to 10 years required to reach critical mass.
Fenn said many new entries on the hype cycle--including microblogging (that is, services such as Twitter) and social networking--are making an initial impact in the consumer world, before influencing business. She added that leading-edge companies are investigating microblogging as a means to enhance other social media and channels.
Looking further ahead, Fenn added: "Other technologies that have passed the trigger where they start to be interesting to businesses include 3D printing, surface computing, augmented reality and mobile robots.
"We expect early adopters to start applying these in novel ways and driving new classes of application, such as using 3D printers to dramatically change the supply chain by creating products and replacement parts at the point of need."
Despite all the attention from Microsoft, surface computing still has a long way to go, with a five- to 10-year roadmap ahead of it to achieve merely a moderate impact.
Other technologies likely to have a moderate impact but which are a little closer to achieving this (two to five years) include microblogging, tablet PCs, video telepresence and wikis, according to Gartner.
Natasha Lomas of Silicon.com reported from London.
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Gartner Group Gaffs and "Web 2.0" Techno-Hype
The renowned Gartner Group's latest Hype Cycle report places "Web 2.0" in a "Trough of Disillusionment":
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But for a few good chuckles, I suggest you Google the following and browse the first 20-30 listings:
failures Gartner Group
warnings Gartner Group
Gartner Group expects
Gartner Group predicts
As for "Web 2.0?, like so many tech articles posted since Tim O'Reilly (or was it Dale Dougherty?) first coined the term in 2004 (or was it 2005?), this one references "Web 2.0" as if it were something tangible--or at least a concept with clear, concise definition. It is not. In 2006, Web founder Sir Tim Berners-Lee sagely observed that "nobody knows what it means":
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In 2007, Michael Wesch put together this video that supposedly "explains what Web 2.0 really is about":
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It is a cool video. But the message is all about XML and how it can be used to separate form and content. There was no mention of CSS and XHTML, but no matter. I was writing XML parsers in the '90s, and XHTML/CSS web design pre-dates "Web 2.0" as well.
And now in 2008, the most honest thing we can say is that "Web 2.0" means whatever the techno-marketeer (ab)using it wants it to mean. Otherwise, why would intelligent people like Isaac O'Bannon still be writing articles asking "What is Web 2.0?":
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And, why would McKinsey's just-released best-of-breed report entitled "Building the Web 2.0 Enterprise" ...
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... include no attempt at defining the term other than to list the "Web 2.0 Tools" that comprise or enable it? And even there, the chief ingredient is identified only as "Web Services", adding more mystery to the mix as one ethereal term is offered up to explain another.
As originated in an Onstartups.com website design posting...
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... "Web 2.0" is like pornography: Nobody has defined it; you just have to know it when you see it.
Bruce Arnold, Web Design Miami Florida
www.PervasivePersuasion.com
Posted by WebDesignMiami on Sunday, August 17 2008 12:05 AM