Investment bank UBS has cut its estimates on digital-ad growth, in conjunction with gloominess about the overall advertising industry. Even though the sector will continue to grow, a report said, it will slow down significantly.
"UBS estimates that the Internet will remain the only segment with positive growth until 2010," a release from the company read, "though the growth rate could drop as low as 10.4 percent in 2009". That is still optimistic compared with some folks in the industry, like Gawker Media founder Nick Denton, who released his own predictions last week that Internet advertising will see a 40 percent drop before the worst of the recession is over.
The bank's estimate for 2008 digital-ad growth has been lowered from 22.1 percent to 21.7 percent.
Some other tidbits from the UBS report: It is optimistic about the fate of Yahoo, despite its stock's sink into the US$9 range, because of the likelihood of a merger with AOL or another chance at an acquisition by Microsoft. The bank also gave a thumbs-up to Google, which "has significantly decreased hiring and delayed the implementation of its 'server farm' in Oklahoma until 2010".
UBS is more bearish on eBay, which it says "remains a company in an identity crisis" as it vacillates between a focus on auctions and fixed-price commerce.
This article was first published as a blog on CNET News.com.
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