By
Elinor Mills
Thursday, September 22 2005 12:02 PM
URL:
http://www.zdnetasia.com/news/internet/0,39044908,39256912,00.htm
Google's one-of-a-kind computer network gives it a chance to surpass
Microsoft to become the most dominant company in tech, according to the author
of a recently published book on the search giant.
Google already has plenty of influence. It handles nearly half of the world's
Web searches. It's hiring some of the biggest names in the industry, from the
controversial Kai-Fu
Lee of Microsoft to the legendary Vint
Cerf, an early Internet pioneer. And it has become such the topic du jour in
Silicon Valley that its search for a new
corporate chef warrants significant local news coverage.
But what's next? Author Stephen Arnold has
closely analyzed Google patents, engineering documents and technology and has
concluded that Google has a grand ambition--to push the information age off the
desktop and onto the Internet. Google, he argues, is aiming to be the network
computer platform for delivering so-called "virtual" applications, or software
that allows a user to perform a task on any device with an Internet
connection.
"Google is this era's transformational computing platform and could be about
to unseat Microsoft from its throne," Arnold writes in a summary of his book,
"The Google Legacy: How Google's Internet Search is Transforming Application
Software," published this month.
For all of its wild success, about 99 percent of Google's revenue still comes
from advertising, mostly from Internet keyword searches. Certainly, it has built
on the core business, adding everything from the Gmail free Web-based e-mail
service to Google Earth, a satellite mapping service. And it has plenty of cash
to spend on new technology--nearly US$7 billion in cash, US$4 billion alone from a
secondary stock offering on Sept. 14.
The big question, of course, is what exactly CEO Eric Schmidt & Co. plan
to do with that war chest.
"Google
is setting itself up to be an application delivery system for any type of
device."
--Stephen
Arnold, author
In his book, which is available in electronic PDF form only, Arnold concludes that
Google has created a supercomputer ready to deliver a host of applications to
anyone with a Web browser.
"Google is setting itself up to be an application delivery system for any
type of device," said Arnold, who has been a technology and financial analyst
for 30 years. He has helped build the technology management practice at Booz
Allen & Hamilton, served as a technology strategy officer at Ziff
Communications, and worked on US West's electronic yellow pages and
personalization tools used by @Home. "That is a different type of paradigm from
Microsoft's" desktop-centric world, he said.
Arnold's research goes well beyond speculation that Google will buy
Chinese portal Baidu.com, in which it already owns a small stake, or move
further into the soon-to-explode voice over Internet Protocol market, beyond its
voice chat-enabled Google
Talk instant-messaging service.
The notion of a network computer isn't new. Sun Microsystems CEO Scott
McNealy has
for years been saying "the network is the computer." Oracle CEO Larry
Ellison formed a company around the idea. It was called the "New Internet
Computer Company," and it sold Web surfing devices before
shuttering two years ago.
But unlike Sun and Oracle, Google's timing could be impeccable, Arnold
argues. "Sun defined it. Ellison tried to build it. But Google owns it," he
said.
The secret sauce
In short, from early on, Google founders Sergey
Brin and Larry Page resourcefully figured out how to cluster lots of cheap
servers and open-source software, configured to act like individual light bulbs
on a Christmas tree that can be added or replaced without making the whole tree
go dark, according to Arnold.
Indeed, Google representatives proudly display the company's unique
rack-mounted server system to visitors to the Mountain View, Calif., campus.
"Google's architecture can scale. Using commodity hardware, Google can deploy
more capacity at a lower cost and more quickly than a competitor relying on a
system built with brand-name hardware," Arnold writes in his book.
Google's move into Web services--its Desktop Search and Sidebar products, for
example--has prompted
Microsoft to reorganize and combine MSN with its platform products group to
help the software giant fight off Google's encroachment on its turf, said Frank
Gillett, an analyst at Forrester Research.
Dark fiber, wireless
The reports of Google's interest in unused fiber optic, also known as "dark fiber," seems to support Arnold's theory.
"Dark fiber will enable greater dependency on what I call virtual
applications," he said. "Once those high-speed connections link the dozen or so
Google data centers, they will do stuff better, enable much more than telephony,
media delivery."
Joe Kraus, a founder of the Excite.com portal that merged with Internet
service provider @Home before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001, agreed
that Google executives are likely thinking big, although he acknowledged he
"doesn't have the slightest clue" what they are doing.
"They've been buying dark fiber for a good five years. It allows them to have
such cheap
communications between all their data centers," said Kraus, chief executive of online start-up JotSpot.
"A lot of people have talked about Google's core ability to host thousands of
applications and being your desktop in the sky," he said. "They certainly never
fail to take advantage of it when launching new products."
Google also has invested
in Current Communications Group, a provider of broadband-over-power-line
technology. In addition, there are rumors that Google is eyeing satellite,
technology that drives its 3D Google Earth application.
"They said, back when they invested in the Internet-over-power-lines company,
that part of their corporate mission is 'promoting universal access to the
Internet for users,'" said Danny Sullivan, editor of Search Engine Watch. "They seem to think they need to make
sure everybody can get online, and running your own network certainly makes that
a lot easier."
This week, Google quietly launched Google Secure Access, a beta version of a downloadable client
application that allows users to establish a secure, encrypted network
connection while using a Wi-Fi wireless network. The program can be downloaded
at certain Google Wi-Fi locations in the San Francisco Bay Area, Google said,
without stating exactly where those locations are.
The company also has been working with San Francisco company Feeva on Wi-Fi
access since earlier this year, Feeva spokesman Keith Kamisugi confirmed
Wednesday. He declined to elaborate, except to say that Feeva and Google offer a
free Wi-Fi hot spot at the trendy Union Square shopping area in downtown San
Francisco. People who connect to the network see a Google Search splash page,
Kamisugi said.
"(Google
seems) to think they need to make sure everybody can get online, and running
your own network certainly makes that a lot easier."
--Danny
Sullivan, editor, Search Engine Watch
Google spokesman Nate Tyler told Reuters that it was running a limited test
of a free wireless Internet service, called Google Wi-Fi, with hot spots in a
pizza parlor and a gym located near the company's headquarters.
Google also recently purchased Android, a wireless
software start-up, and was looking to hire a global infrastructure strategic negotiator
to ink dark fiber contracts as part of a "global backbone network."
Offering Internet access gets more potential Google users online and gives
the company another way to target consumers with ads, particularly
location-based advertisements for wireless users.
Google, which tends to keep long-term plans under wraps, did not return an
e-mail seeking comment for this story. (Google representatives have instituted a
policy of not talking with CNET News.com reporters until July 2006 in response
to privacy issues raised by a
previous story.)
Some people speculate the company will use the dark fiber to build a massive
nationwide network that would rival those of some of the largest Internet
backbone providers such as MCI and AT&T. As that theory goes, Google would
use this network to shuttle traffic across the country between its data centers.
Then it would use a wireless network to distribute the content locally to end
users.
Voice, video
Voice over Internet communications is also a likely
target, analysts said.
"If the traffic is flowing across the Internet, you have no idea how many
routers the traffic has gone through, which can impact the quality of the call,"
said Michael Howard, an analyst at Infonetics Research. "But if the traffic
travels on your own network, you can control the quality. That could be reason
enough to build a network."
Video is another possibility. Google hosts people's
downloaded video for free and indexes and searches it.
"It's pretty evident that they will have some play in video distribution. How
that's going to come out is still a mystery," said Vamsi Sistla, director of
broadband and digital home/media at ABI Research.
Like many other large
companies with high bandwidth needs, Google could be building its own
network simply to be saving money.
"I would imagine that Google must be paying someone a lot of money to keep
its data centers running and in sync," Howard said. "So it makes perfect sense
for them to build a network themselves to connect their data centers."
Gartner analyst Allen Weiner, who predicts Google will eventually develop a
Google phone, said becoming an application delivery platform would be "part of
(Google's) intellectual property DNA."
"If they built out a hosting platform for people to upload all kinds of
content that could be searched by Google and monetized by Google, like video and
podcasts...it takes money to do, and with the search capabilities as their
strong suit it could be something they could do," Weiner said. "Google could
say, 'We'll host it for you; you point to us.' That could be huge."
CNET News.com's Marguerite Reardon and Martin LaMonica contributed to this
report.