But the toughest test for Microsoft's next release of Windows is still to come: Will anyone buy it?
Even though it will be five years after Windows XP's debut, Microsoft could still face a tough sell when it releases Longhorn next year. With past updates, users had clamored for more stability and security, but analysts say people are pretty happy with Windows XP.
"Microsoft for the very first time is going to be faced with the challenge of being the player whose (operating system) is 'good enough'" as is, said Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg.
The challenge is one Microsoft has tackled for years with its Office software, but it's a relatively new problem for the Windows side of the house.
Microsoft managed to turn the launch of Windows 95 into a major event, with loads of mainstream press and consumer enthusiasm. However, subsequent releases have been considerably more subdued affairs, particularly the launch of Windows XP, which came just a few weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Even with its longest-ever time between OS releases, Gartenberg said, Microsoft will have to work to build demand for Longhorn.
"Microsoft is going to have to find a way to take a page from the Steve Jobs playbook and make an operating system that not only looks interesting, but feels interesting," Gartenberg said.
Longhorn was supposed to achieve the sort of "quantum leap" Microsoft managed with Windows 95. The software maker began talking about Longhorn at a developer conference in the fall of 2003, years before the software would be ready. Microsoft spoke of it as a major advance, to which significant upgrades of other Microsoft software would be tied.
But faced with the prospect of having to further delay the OS, Microsoft decided last year to scale back its key components, and with them, some of Longhorn's ambitions.
The result is that Microsoft is on track to deliver a new version of Windows next year, but it has been unclear about what, exactly, the OS will contain.
"We know pretty much definitively that Longhorn is the next version of the Windows client," Gartenberg said. "Everything else goes downhill from there."
Things should become clearer next month when Microsoft offers an updated preview version of Longhorn at WinHEC, its Windows Hardware Engineering Conference, in Seattle. A more full-featured beta version has been promised by June.
What if you released an OS and no one came?
A lot has changed since Windows XP debuted in 2001. Wireless networking has become much more common, as have devices with Bluetooth. USB flash drives and other portable storage devices have
essentially replaced the floppy disk, but they've brought along unique
security issues.
Still, analysts say Windows XP has aged well, particularly with the Service Pack 2 upgrade that debuted last year and the Tablet and Media Center editions that have seen several updates in recent years.
"I don't hear anyone saying 'I've got to have Longhorn tomorrow,'" said Yankee Group analyst Laura DiDio.
Of course, a lot of that may have to do with the fact that Microsoft has been very quiet in recent months. Some details about Longhorn have emerged, but they shed only a modest amount of light on what Microsoft will use as the key selling points for its operating system.
At its lowest level, Microsoft is building Longhorn using the same code as Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 1, which lets the software maker take advantage of the security enhancements it made with Windows XP Service Pack 2--as well as the added support for 64-bit chips the company will debut next month, coincident with the release of SP1.
Microsoft has previewed two of the key technologies it has planned for Longhorn: its Avalon presentation engine and Indigo, its Web services architecture. Indigo is designed to let programs share data more easily, while Avalon should pave the way for programs that are more visually appealing. But most of the software that will take advantage of the technologies is not likely to arrive until sometime after Longhorn.
By the time Longhorn ships, Microsoft plans to have a new version of its Internet Explorer browser, though the company said last month that it will make IE 7 available for Windows XP, a break from the company's mantra that browser updates would require an upgrade of the operating system.
Microsoft has not talked in detail about its plans to integrate desktop search into Longhorn, but Gartner analyst Michael Silver said that's a clear requirement.
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